Thursday, January 5, 2012

An update on stuff...

Hello folks. Wish you all a happy new year and I sincerely hope that investing-wise, it does not turn out to be a crappy new year! :-)

Its been almost an year since I put up an update on previous posts I had made and I think it is time to bore you again. There is a lot of stuff I write, which is not stock-specific. I don't think I should bore you more with updates on that, hence I will update only about the prior stock-specific posts.

In March 2011, I had written about some amazing things that Sharp India was doing. I re-iterate that I will not touch the company's shares with a 20 ft pole.

In April 2011, I had written about Disa India and had followed it up with AGM notes on the same. The price is virtually at the same level. The company has had a coupla quarters of good performance. However, the business is lumpy and this should not be extrapolated. I am not buying the stock at present.

In May 2011, I had written about SBI's subsidiaries and had followed it up with an update. I was of the view that the stocks were not very attractive at the then prevailing market prices. Since then, the prices have dropped decently. I think the stocks will start becoming attractive on further drops. I have built a small initiating position in one of them.

In June 2011, I had written about Goodyear India. I have never had a position in the stock. The post was basically for inviting views from readers. I had some good interactions with a few people over email on the topic.

In July 2011, I had written about Kesar Terminals. The company has announced some expansion plans but has not disclosed the financial aspects of the same. Please check out the BSE announcements regarding the same. I am no longer invested in the stock.

In July 2011, I had written about Balrampur Chini using a mind-map approach. This is the first time in my 8-10 years in the market that I have looked at a sugar stock. The stock price has fallen since then and I have been steadily nibbling into it. I have left decent room to add more on further declines. I have no idea about when the sugar cycle will turn. :-)

In October 2011, I had written about Network18 Preference Shares, with a view that they were too risky for my taste. The price of the shares has appreciated from Rs.105 to Rs.122 since my post, mostly due to some interesting recent events. :-) I still maintain that they are too risky for me and I have no intention of buying the same.

In November 2011, I had written about Bharat Bijlee with a view that the time was not yet right for buying. Even though the stock LOOKED cheap, it was not THAT cheap. The price has fallen from Rs.700 to Rs.540 since my post. I will be eagerly looking into the December 2011 quarterly results to see the position of the business.

In November 2011, I had written about Triton Valves. I had analysed the company strictly on quantitative basis and it was not a good opportunity, in my view. The stock price has dropped from Rs.500 to Rs.370 since my post. I still have no intention of buying the same.

In December 2011, I had written about Today's Writing Products. I honestly have no update on the same! :-D

Well, there you go folks. Hope you had a good time at the blog. New ideas are a bit hard to come by still. Am looking at a few really interesting candidates. Will update soon.

Cheers and happy investing!!


sameer said...

Happy new year Neeraj.
I am regular follower of your blog.

Some experts are suggesting not to but UP sugar stocks due to elections.
Also, Shree Renuka Sugar is leader and can be great sugar play.

But there has been big Forex loss and hence this stock has been beaten down to almost 5 year low.
Why do u think that Balrampur is better Sugar play than Shree Renuka Sugar

Neeraj Marathe said...

Hello Sameer,
I have never said at all that Balrampur is better than Renuka. In fact, i have never compared the two! My post was strictly about Balrampur and i have absolutely no view on Renuka.

Ashwini Damani said...

Happy New Year Neeraj.. Have recently started following your blog, and I must state, I am already a fan of yours.
Keep guiding and interacting with us.


Neeraj Marathe said...

Thnx Ashwini,
Glad you liked the blog..

Suhail said...

Happy New year to you too Neeraj! Nice roundup.

Saw yr Balrampur mind-map post. Interesting thought process to apply in this situation.

I think the way sameer interpreted it as (I did the same too!) since you being pro-investor, if you are investing only in Balrampur out of all sugar stocks avlbl, then it's implied that you find it better than Renuka or others. If not, why would you not go for Renuka or both? That's the implied query I had too.

But I think I know what sameer missed and where I found the answer to it. There's a decision box in mindmap that asks "Are you aware of best in-class mgmt in this sector". So as I understand your Balrampur choice comes purely to this. Correct?

Followup Qn of my own:
Stk is almost 30-40% down from the time you posted. You still interested in purchasing it and what's the thought behind it? I mean to ask, since you are not ascribing a fundamental valuation here, have you kept some kind of arbitary gut-level stoploss or just playing it as a 'tukka' and hoping that the cycle-reversal will take care of this dip? Would be interesting for students like me to learn how conservative investor like you will deal with this situation.


Neeraj Marathe said...

Hello Suhail,
yes, as u rightly said, i have not looked at other sugar stocks..though all of them seem cheap now, based on the usual valuation parameters.
Yaar, investing and making money in sugar will always be a tukka, imho..there are too many factors which we cannot possibly estimate/foresee which influence the sector.
regarding balrampur, i have been nibbling regularly into it, with a lot of space left to add more in case of further falls. till now, i have never put money in sugar, lets see how this one goes in a coupla years :-)

Manish (KulMan) said...


You mention that stock ideas are hard to find which is a fact. How come those enlightened analysts on biz tv come with multibagger ideas almost everyday! And still none of those guys figure in Forbes richest list.

Neeraj Marathe said...

Well Kulman, if i was paid/had some other incentive to come on tv everyday and give stock ideas, probably i would also be able to find one 'multibagger' per day! :-) ;-)

Manish (KulMan) said...


Thank god you are not one of them!

By the way, would you want to hedge your Balrampur Chini by also taking a position in sugar-free Zydus?

Neeraj Marathe said...

Hahaha..good one!
but why go for sugar-free when there is a chance of getting free sugar! :-D