Coming to the point, the post is to discuss the Binani Cement delisting play and a possible opportunity to earn some dough here.
As can be seen, at present EV, Binani Cement is not very expensive. However, given the present scenario in the Cement sector, it is not very cheap either!
Let us now look at the shareholding pattern:
The promoters need 20.1% to delist. J P Morgan Special Situations Mauritius Ltd. and Ganesha Prime Holdings Mauritius Ltd (a subsidiary of Stansen Holdings Singapore) together hold 21.4%. So the delisting would require the co-operation of only these two parties.
So let us check out the history of what these big guys have done:
- J P Morgan had acquired 25% stake in Binani Cement @ Rs.24 in 2005. Out of this, they disposed 10% @ Rs.75 through an offer for sale in 2006-07 IPO. They further sold 3.4% more in the 2010 buyback @ Rs.90. They hold remaining 11.6%.
- Ganesha had also acquired its 10% stake pre-IPO. They haven't sold anything yet.
Now to the key question; what would be the delisting price?
The floor price has been set at Rs.82. The company had recently done a buyback @ Rs.90, in which JP Morgan had participated. So logically, they would not tender shares at a price less than Rs.90. Being the majority non-promoter shareholder, they can surely influence the price. In my view, the minimum delisting price would be Rs.90.
Let us also do a risk analysis:
I have not participated in a lot of delisting cases, because valuations did not make sense. However, in the present case, the valuations are not very expensive. This risk is low in my opinion.
This is the risk of the event not happening at all and the delisting getting cancelled. However, the promoters have already taken all the steps to go for delisting. They have increased their stake through buyback. The shareholding is also not scattered, making delisting relatively easy. The promoter who is delisting (Binani Industries) has about Rs.500 cr cash on its balance sheet. The financing for delisting is also not a problem. The event risk is therefore low in my opinion.
This is the risk of the quality of the promoters. The Binani Group has not been minority shareholder-friendly in the past. Their actions in Binani Metals in the past speak for themselves. In my opinion, the promoter risk is high. I wouldn't trust them 100%.
This is the risk of the delisting getting delayed. However, I think that the time is ripe for them to delist, considering the depressed market conditions and negatives associated with the sector. The postal ballot for going ahead with the delisting has already been sent. In my opinion, it will take 40-45 days for the reverse book-building process to start. The time risk is therefore low, in my opinion.
With a floor price of Rs.82, Binani offers an opportunity with relatively less downside. A minimum 10% upside is visible, with a holding period of about 2 months. Delisting can be very much successful, due to the concentrated shareholding. However, given my discomfort with the promoter quality, I would not take a huge position in this situation.
Cheers and happy investing!