Hello to all! Well, I have finished torturing my students (my lectures are over) and now its time to concentrate more on torturing my readers! :-)
I have this habit of putting up brief updates at regular intervals, so here it goes..
Mr.Market has smiled upon most of us and I believe that all of our portfolios will be galloping for whatever reasons! Many of us will be secretly considering ourselves as amazing stock pickers and investors. However, very few acknowledge the role that luck plays in investing. The usual thought process of a lot of investors is that if profit is made, it was skill, while if loss is incurred, it was (bad) luck. Its a very convenient way of turning our confidence into over-confidence. I had earlier written on the topic of skill v/s luck in investing.
Well, a couple of people, Abhinav and Niren have recently started a blog about investing, with this as the central theme. While I haven't had the chance to interact with Abhinav extensively, Niren and I have been friends for more than a decade and we meet up everyday for a cuppa tea. He is someone I regard highly as an investor and is someone whose thoughts any keen investor should follow. Here is a link to their introductory post. (Yes, I am promoting my friend's blog.. yes, I think he is a very smart investor and brings a fresh, new approach to the table..no, he did not ask me to do it...yes, I will make him pay for tea for at least a week!)
Well, after diverting from the topic of this post and trying to promote my friend's blog to the very few readers of my blog, lemme get back to business!!
I had written about NBCC a couple of months ago. My view on the stock as a long term holding is not very positive due to the reasons mentioned. However, it is expected that the revenue and profit booking of their commercial real estate project which I had mentioned could happen in the either Q2 or Q3 FY12. When this happens, it will result in an exceptionally amazing quarterly result and there could be a nice spike-up in the stock price. However, from the longer term point of view, my concerns still remain and in my view treating this as a 'compounding long term story' is quite risky. Treat this as a 2-3 quarter 'trade'!!
APW President AGM was attended by a friend of mine. No fresh information was obtained. In my view, due to the lethargy of the promoters, valuations which are not 'sitter' valuations, in a industry which is not exactly going through good times, one should not take a large position in this.
Sundaram Clayton demerger record date is over and the existing company has also been delisted for some period of time. I was not invested in this situation, but I intend to keep a watch on the scenario post-relisting.
DISA India has given decent returns and since I had disclosed that I was buying the stock, I should disclose that I still hold the entire position. I am not even thinking about the delisting angle and I am comfortable as long as I can see that the business is doing well and valuations are not over-the-top. People interested in DISA might find this article interesting. :-)
Ashiana Housing has gone through some interesting times. I absolutely adore the management. In my view, they are best-in-class. However, due to the change in accounting policy they have initiated, one should expect very lumpy earnings going forward. While that does not matter to me, it might matter to Mr.Market! However, two factors - lack of growth and the unwillingness to distribute healthy dividend inspite of having great cashflow - make me sit back and think on the stock unemotionally. While I do not think that the company will destroy wealth, I fear that the stock could deliver sub-par returns due to these factors.
Falcon Tyres is something I had found very interesting in a negative sense! I continue to track the stock with interest! Apna kuch lena-dena nahi hai, but still, complete interest! :-)
Well, that's all for now. I am looking at a few interesting new ideas..will update about them soon.
Cheers and happy investing!!
Disclaimer(s)!!
1) All the posts on this blog, including this one, are for educational and discussion purposes only.
2) I post articles on individual stocks as well as varied topics like behavioural finance, industry analysis etc. None of the material posted should be regarded as advice to buy/sell any stock. My articles are not recommendations to buy/sell individual stocks, and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.
3) I may have positions in stocks discussed. As a professional advisor, I advise clients regarding investments. They also may or may not have positions in stocks discussed, depending on their decision.
4) PLEASE DO NOT TAKE BUY/SELL OR ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ARTICLES YOU READ ON THE BLOG. These are only meant to provide information and initiate discussion. Final decision is and always should be, yours and only yours!
Friday, October 19, 2012
Sunday, September 23, 2012
A good site for investors
A good friend of mine, Ayush and his brother Pratyush write an excellent blog.
They have also recently started a new website http://www.screener.in/
This, I feel, is an excellent website for any serious investor. Not only does it give you screeners and filters, but it also gives you last 10 years' data as well as numerous value-adding content, email updates, etc.
Registration is free. Do make good use of it.
Disclosures;
1. I am not connected in any professional way with the above website.
2. One of the owners of the site, Ayush, is a good friend of mine. However, he did not tell me to write about/promote the site. In fact, to be honest, he does not even know that I am writing this post. My sole purpose behind writing this is that investors should be made aware of this good resource.
3. I am a user of the above mentioned site.
They have also recently started a new website http://www.screener.in/
This, I feel, is an excellent website for any serious investor. Not only does it give you screeners and filters, but it also gives you last 10 years' data as well as numerous value-adding content, email updates, etc.
Registration is free. Do make good use of it.
Disclosures;
1. I am not connected in any professional way with the above website.
2. One of the owners of the site, Ayush, is a good friend of mine. However, he did not tell me to write about/promote the site. In fact, to be honest, he does not even know that I am writing this post. My sole purpose behind writing this is that investors should be made aware of this good resource.
3. I am a user of the above mentioned site.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
A bit more on open offers..
I had recently written a post on the acceptance ratio in open offers and I got a lot of interesting feedback on the same on the blog as well as on email.
Someone claimed that there is nothing special or interesting in the actual acceptance ratio being so high vis-a-vis the theoretical acceptance ratio. Someone else thought that I have an itch to blog, which is why I have put up a useless post. :-)
Well, everybody has an opinion, which should be respected. But someone also suggested that a bit more details about open offers and the opportunity to earn in them would be helpful. I think thats a very valid suggestion, which is the reason for this post.
Even though I supposedly have an itch to blog, in this case, there is not much need for me to write about it. Kiran has already written on this topic in great detail. I would request that anyone who is interested in knowing more about open offer trades should go through the excellent post by Kiran. Kiran's post also contains a link to a word document, in which he has analysed the open offer in greater detail. Kindly go through the same too, I assure you that it will be extremely helpful.
After going through the same, I think you will appreciate the importance of acceptance ratio in open offers. And why the high actual acceptance ratio is actually such a big deal.
Hope this helped..
Cheers and happy investing!!
Disclaimer(s)!!
1) All the posts on this blog, including this one, are for educational and discussion purposes only.
2) I post articles on individual stocks as well as varied topics like behavioural finance, industry analysis etc. None of the material posted should be regarded as advice to buy/sell any stock. My articles are not recommendations to buy/sell individual stocks, and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.
3) I may have positions in stocks discussed. As a professional advisor, I advise clients regarding investments. They also may or may not have positions in stocks discussed, depending on their decision.
4) PLEASE DO NOT TAKE BUY/SELL OR ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ARTICLES YOU READ ON THE BLOG. These are only meant to provide information and initiate discussion. Final decision is and always should be, yours and only yours!
Someone claimed that there is nothing special or interesting in the actual acceptance ratio being so high vis-a-vis the theoretical acceptance ratio. Someone else thought that I have an itch to blog, which is why I have put up a useless post. :-)
Well, everybody has an opinion, which should be respected. But someone also suggested that a bit more details about open offers and the opportunity to earn in them would be helpful. I think thats a very valid suggestion, which is the reason for this post.
Even though I supposedly have an itch to blog, in this case, there is not much need for me to write about it. Kiran has already written on this topic in great detail. I would request that anyone who is interested in knowing more about open offer trades should go through the excellent post by Kiran. Kiran's post also contains a link to a word document, in which he has analysed the open offer in greater detail. Kindly go through the same too, I assure you that it will be extremely helpful.
After going through the same, I think you will appreciate the importance of acceptance ratio in open offers. And why the high actual acceptance ratio is actually such a big deal.
Hope this helped..
Cheers and happy investing!!
Disclaimer(s)!!
1) All the posts on this blog, including this one, are for educational and discussion purposes only.
2) I post articles on individual stocks as well as varied topics like behavioural finance, industry analysis etc. None of the material posted should be regarded as advice to buy/sell any stock. My articles are not recommendations to buy/sell individual stocks, and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.
3) I may have positions in stocks discussed. As a professional advisor, I advise clients regarding investments. They also may or may not have positions in stocks discussed, depending on their decision.
4) PLEASE DO NOT TAKE BUY/SELL OR ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ARTICLES YOU READ ON THE BLOG. These are only meant to provide information and initiate discussion. Final decision is and always should be, yours and only yours!