Monday, March 5, 2012

Investing and Magic!

Yesterday, I watched (again!) one of my all time favourite movies The Prestige, a masterpiece by Nolan. Hence this post!
Think about it, investing is indeed like magic. We make money out of virtually nothing, there are a lot of things about investing we do not understand/cannot logically reason.. and its so much fun..everything just like magic! :-) 
So lets try and see how investing is like magic!




Every great magic trick consists of 3 parts or acts: (no prizes for guessing where these lines come from!)
The first part is known as The Pledge. Here, the magician shows you something ordinary like a 'normal' deck of cards, etc. He might ask you to inspect it and ensure that is just an ordinary piece.
The second part is known as The Turn. Here, the magician takes the ordinary something and makes it do something extraordinary. Now you are stunned and are thinking 'how did that happen'. But you still wont be clapping. Making something disappear is not enough. You have to bring it back.
Thats why every magic trick has the third and hardest part, called The Prestige. What disappeared now appears back in the most unlikely place! Thats where the applause starts! 
Every great investment consists of 3 parts too:
The first part is The Research. A thorough and comprehensive research to determine the true value of something. Something which might look like an ordinary company, but may, actually, be extraordinary.
The second part is The Buying. Proper research and proper conviction results in proper buying! Buying and tracking its performance and various other developments is most important. Keep tabs on it patiently as the ordinary starts becoming the extraordinary. Stock price goes through the roof. However, that is not enough. Applauding notional profits is just like explaining the importance of capitalism to communists. Its useless!
Thats why every great investment has the third and the hardest part, The Selling. Its not until you have sold have you made profits!
See, just like magic! :-)


Every magician takes advantage of the obvious. The most complex illusion is based on the most simplest of 'tricks'. Like a trap-door in the stage to make the magician 'disappear'. If you learn how that trick was performed, you will say 'o that should have been so obvious'. But while watching the trick, you never realised it!
An investor does the same thing. He tries to catch the obvious, which others have missed. The market misprices stocks; an intelligent investor recognises and grabs it. After some time, the market starts valuing in properly, resulting in increase in price. And other people say..o that was so obvious..why didnt we buy that time?
Magic indeed!

Magic is fun! Sad magician..or boring magician..just doesn't sound right huh! When a magician performs his tricks, he too seems to have as much fun as his audience. The best part is..its fun even when a trick fails and a magic act becomes a comedy act.
Investing is fun too, believe me! Its a constant circus happening all around us 24x7. And just like magic, its fun whenever it fails too.. its hard to admit mistakes and laugh at one's own stupidity, but believe me, its fun! And most importantly, you get to learn sooo much from the mistakes.
Magical eh!

Magic is dangerous. Magicians have died trying to do the impossible. Trying to take unwarranted risks. Trying to do illusions without having proper checks and controls in place. Magic can become suicidal very fast if the magician does not know what he is doing.
Investing is dangerous too. People lose their money, their house, their happiness and peace of mind. It happens when they take unwarranted risks. When they speculate and punt without having proper checks and controls in place. The stock market is the best and surest place to incur losses if the investor does not know what he is doing.
Be careful with magic!


So, what say? Investing and magic go hand in hand huh! Hope you had fun reading, coz I had real good fun writing!


Abracadabra!!


Cheers and happy investing!




P.S. This is meant to be a light, fun read. If you think I am going bonkers, thats quite ok! Relating diverse disciplines is something I honestly enjoy doing. But if you liked reading this, you might also like reading another post of mine. 

Provogue (India) Ltd - Follow-up

I had written about Provogue demerger a few days ago. Its surely an interesting case with lots of apparent value, but with a very very questionable management. Although my position in it is not very large, I have never ever been so uncomfortable in any stock in my life!
An interesting thing has happened recently. The following announcement has been made on Provogue on NSE:


Members of the Exchange are hereby informed that the trading in equity shares of Provogue (India) Limited shall be suspended w.e.f. March 07, 2012 (i.e. closing hours of trading on March 06, 2012) on account of Scheme of Arrangement & Amalgamation.


This does not happen normally in demergers. Its happening here due to capital reduction in Provogue, which is part of the scheme. Now the interesting thing about this is made up of two parts; one, that the announcement hasn't been made yet on BSE, and so I bloody missed reading it immediately. It won't happen that it will remain listed on BSE while its delisted on NSE. I think it wont be listed on either for some period of time. Secondly, this is something that I was afraid of, (since there is capital reduction happening in Provogue as part of the scheme), hence, I had checked it with the CS of the company when I had begun research on the stock. He had informed me at that time that Provogue will not be delisted.


Now, it seems that it will be!! So what does this mean for us? We will not be able to sell Provogue shares on ex-date (7th March 2012) since it wont be trading on that day. So there are two options:

  1. Sell out pre-demerger; i.e. before 7th. One will not get shares of Prozone in that case.
  2. Hold on and wait for Provogue to get listed again. Then sell off the original (Provogue) position. One will receive shares of Prozone in that case.

So what is the risk? 

  • Time risk: How long will it take to get Provogue relisted? Usually, it does not take long, its only capital reduction. It could take maximum 8-10 days at best. However, if one invests on the basis of best-case scenarios, one should not be in the market at all!! What if due to some god-forsaken reason, it takes a long long time for Provogue to relist again? The money remains trapped in an already uncomfy position. Not an ideal scenario, at least for me.
  • Market risk: What if the market collapses during the time Provogue is not listed? If it gets relisted during bad times, the price could be severely depressed, resulting in losses on the original position.
  • Provogue risk: This is a special category of risk, applicable only in this case. Under this risk, anything can go wrong! Hehe. (Just kidding)


What am I doing?

I intend to sell of my entire position asap, pre-demerger itself. In a position which is already stretching my risk threshold and making me uncomfy, this event increases the risk phenomenally for me. I am very happy and content with my 30-35% profit and am willing to pass on the baton to make more money to others who are willing to take the risk and are ok with it. :-) In special situations, one has to be nimble, think straight and clear, and be ready to take decisions fast, with changing facts.


On a different note, who says luck does not play a role in making money? Earning money in Provogue is enough proof of luck, imho! :-)


Cheers and happy investing!!



Disclaimer(s)!!
1) All the posts on this blog, including this one, are for educational and discussion purposes only.
2) I post articles on individual stocks as well as varied topics like behavioural finance, industry analysis etc. None of the material posted should be regarded as advice to buy/sell any stock. My articles are not recommendations to buy/sell individual stocks, and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.
3) I may have positions in stocks discussed. As a professional advisor, I advise clients regarding investments. They also may or may not have positions in stocks discussed, depending on their decision. 
4) PLEASE DO NOT TAKE BUY/SELL OR ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ARTICLES YOU READ ON THE BLOG. These are only meant to provide information and initiate discussion. Final decision is and always should be, yours and only yours!

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Disa India - follow-up post

I had written about Disa India about an year ago and had followed it up with my AGM notes on the company. 
Well, today something happened which necessitates a follow-up post about Disa, imho. Disa declared its results for the quarter and year ended December 2011. The results are extremely good in my opinion, with the company posting an EPS of Rs.150 for the calender year 2011.
Well, that is not the extra-ordinary part. What is extra-ordinary is that the company declared 2000% (Rs.200 per share) dividend, rather out-of-the-blue. So, on an EPS of Rs.150, thats a payout of 133%! Generous indeed!
The question which arises, of course, is - have they gone bonkers?! The company had total cash of about Rs.60 crores as on December 31, 2011 and they are going to pay out Rs.30 crores of dividend (pre-tax). Now why would they do this? I believe there is more than what meets the eye here.
Let us consider a few points...

  • If one looks at the promoter holding in the September 2011 quarter, it was 74.27%. For the December 2011 quarter, it has become 74.48%. Thats a small (but significant) difference of 0.21% or 3101 shares.
  • If one goes through the September 2011 shareholding pattern, note no.5 says that "Individual upto one lakh (Non-institutions) includes 3,101 shares received in the Open Offer made by the Acquirers in the year 2009, which are still to be transferred in the name of the Acquirer. Transfer pending since the matter is subjudiced." Now, that seems to have been transferred.
  • Note no.4 in the same says that "Bodies Corporate ( Non Institutions) Includes 181,384 shares in Escrow Account received in the Open Offer made by the Acquirers in the year 2009, which are still to be transferred in the name of the Acquirer. Transfer pending since the matter is subjudiced."
  • So, now, if the 'individuals' part is transferred, they could well be on their way to transfer the 'bodies corporate' part too, which so far has been held in escrow account.
  • If they transfer the same too, the promoter holding goes up to 86.49%, suddenly making it a prime delisting candidate.
Now, if we relate these to their decision of this large dividend payout, a few dots can be connected and a (bit hazy) picture emerges...
  • Who would be the biggest beneficiary of dividend? The largest shareholder of course, i.e. the promoters!
  • So, take out money from the company and (maybe) use it to delist the company! As a side-effect, we minority shareholders can also enjoy dividend!
  • Secondly, how would be balance sheet look like if its stripped of cash? Not very attractive, right? Well, a lesser attractive balance sheet means that less premium needs to be paid on delisting!
  • Another possibility (although remote) is that the company is up for sale, before which, the present owners are stripping the cash. (This is exactly what happened the last time they declared Rs.200 dividend in CY 2007)
  • And of course, if we leave the conspiracy theories and my hyper-active-had-too-much-coffee-brain aside, it could be just a 'normal' payout since they do not need so much cash for capex. (Although I do not think so.)
So, finally, what to do! At a market cap of Rs.300 cr, the company is not dirt-cheap anymore. Although, it is not over-the-top-expensive to sell. I intend to keep on holding and keep a watch on what happens in future. At this market cap, get into it only if you are adventurous and whole-heartedly want to punt on the 'delisting theme', like so many people seem to to doing currently! :-)

Cheers and happy investing!



Disclaimer(s)!!
1) All the posts on this blog, including this one, are for educational and discussion purposes only.
2) I post articles on individual stocks as well as varied topics like behavioural finance, industry analysis etc. None of the material posted should be regarded as advice to buy/sell any stock. My articles are not recommendations to buy/sell individual stocks, and should not be construed as any form of investment advice.
3) I may have positions in stocks discussed. As a professional advisor, I advise clients regarding investments. They also may or may not have positions in stocks discussed, depending on their decision. 
4) PLEASE DO NOT TAKE BUY/SELL OR ANY INVESTMENT DECISION BASED ON ARTICLES YOU READ ON THE BLOG. These are only meant to provide information and initiate discussion. Final decision is and always should be, yours and only yours!